Apparently he has decided to go for it in 2016.
Chance of winning? Good. Maybe very good especially if the Democrats run Hillary Clinton.
Well, pundits? Fire away!
Jimmy wrote:I am making my prediction now, Hillary will not be the Democratic nominee.
Roald wrote:Biden might be able to pull it off.
This is shaping up to be a battle of manners between country club Republicans and country club Democrats. If nothing else, it'll be hilarious watching the multimillionaires trying to outdo each other with faux folksiness.
Roald wrote:It's been a while since this thread has seen activity, but I think an update is warranted.
That said, she still has a very good chance of getting the Democratic nomination. I mean, other than New Hampshire is Sanders really going to win another primary? Probably not.
Roald wrote: So how does look in a national campaign? That depends on who the Republicans nominate. If it's Trump or Cruz (it won't be), she wins. If it's Bush or Rubio, I think she is far more vulnerable now than I would have predicted. If the Republicans are smart, they may well be able to pull this off.
Roald wrote:It's been a while since this thread has seen activity, but I think an update is warranted.
mattchand wrote:This election has taken the most bizarre turns of any in my lifetime. It seems to me that we are now looking at an electoral choice between "Brave New World" (Hilary) and "Idiocracy" (Trump).
hierophant wrote:Roald wrote:It's been a while since this thread has seen activity, but I think an update is warranted.
It's interesting how bad most of the early predictions were.
Everywhere it's a populist insurrection that sets the average voter against the ruling elites. Here in the US it's a repudiation of the "globalism" that both American parties, both 'liberals' and 'conservatives', and most of our would-be 'leaders' (Obama and Hillary, along with the Bush's, Rubio and the rest) have traditionally supported and facilitated.
I think that the way to understand Trump is to see him as an American nationalist first and foremost. His positions on everything from immigration to trade to international affairs is shaped by what he believes is in the American people's interest...
There's a reason why the establishments of both American parties hate him so passionately, and why conventional European elite opinion reviles him. He goes directly against the political doctrine that nations no longer mean much of anything in our globalizing world, that the future lies in increasingly quasi-governmental international organizations like the European Union ("Ever closer union!"), into which all of the former nation-states surrender their sovereignty (and their cultural distinctiveness along with it). But as we saw with Brexit, sometimes the people have other ideas. They see the efforts to centralize all power in fewer hands, further away from and less accountable to the people they supposedly represent, along with the tendency to imagine the world's peoples, traditions and cultures as increasingly homogeneous and fungible, as essentially totalitarian.
This is going to be an election like no others in US history, an insurrection of American people against all of their self-appointed opinion-leaders -- the rich, the powerful, the media pundits, the university professors... and the aristocratic Bush and Clinton families who believe that they can play by different rules than the 'little people' (as Hillary showed with her smug and arrogant responses to questions about her server).
My prediction is that Hillary will probably win in 2016
but American politics will be transformed. A dramatic new fault-line has appeared that doesn't correspond to the old Republican-Democrat divide or to the old left-right dichotomy. It isn't about who is a "liberal" and who is a "conservative" any longer. Those terms are largely meaningless these days. We see self-styled 'conservatives' lining up with Hillary because she and they identify with the elites, and we see rank and file 'working-class' voters from the Bernie Sanders coalition sliding over to Trump. There's going to be a wholesale realignment of American politics, I think. There were several in the 19th century, but really none in the 20th.
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