Ukraine conflict

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Ukraine conflict

Postby Eric » Sun Mar 02, 2014 4:51 pm

Is current policy again a wrong one?

American European tactics to put pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin, instead of Kiev, appears as a first-rate strategic mistake resulting from weakness and could ultimately lead to hostilities and extensive bloodshed.

Kiev police have no money to hold the security forces in Kiev, where he will take money to equip , feed , and move a million soldiers?

President Obama and Putin conversation lasted 90 minutes, Russian President Vladimir Putin , just clarified what was known in advance that Putin will not move from his positions , and will not withdraw the Russian troops in the Crimea . Moreover, the message of Putin hidden between the diplomatic words is very clear : If Obama , or Europeans will not work to remove the regime staging in Kiev , which Putin called regime of gangs and fascists , Russia will continue to dominate the areas in eastern Ukraine, a home to the citizens of Ukraine of Russian origin who are Russian-speaking until the temporary regime falls .

Maybe instead restraining the Russian president, had to USA'' in the Europeans act quickly or replace the provisional regime which came to power in Kiev as a result of a revolution, to try diplomacy with provisional regime that had no choice but to try and negotiate with Moscow, with the basis such a move is the agreement obtained by the foreign ministers of Germany, Poland and France being in Kiev in the third week of February. This agreement speaks of remaining in power of former President Viktor Yanukovych, and the establishment of a national emergency government with participation of elements pro - Russian and anti-Russian state.

As time passes even this solution becomes less and less practical.

Ultimately time will show how things will emerge in this conflict. Ukraine is mobilizing 1 million army, including reserves. Will Germany , US write the check?
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Re: Ukraine conflict

Postby Roald » Mon Mar 03, 2014 12:18 am

Between 1994 and 1996 Ukraine shipped it's entire nuclear arsenal (1,900 strategic weapons) to Russia for dismantling. They were under pressure from Clinton, Yeltsin, and Blair to give up their arsenal for the purposes of international security. There were legitimate concerns that Ukraine did not possess full control over its weapons.

In exchange, Russia promised to respect Ukraine's territorial rights.

I'd be willing to bet that Ukrainians now deeply regret giving up their most powerful deterrent in exchange for a broken promise from Russia and zero chance of meaningful help from the U.S. or Europe.

Mind you, I'm not arguing in favor of every former SSR maintaining a nuclear deterrent. Clearly there are dangers associated with such a policy. On the other hand, Ukraine lives in a tough neighborhood with an increasingly belligerent neighbor. Economic sanctions? I'm sure Putin is shaking in his boots.
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Re: Ukraine conflict

Postby Rich Douglas » Mon Mar 03, 2014 3:58 am

Putin will not be stopped by Western action. He will, however, be stopped by the collapse of this insane aggression.

Russia is a mess sociologically, politically, economically, and militarily. They'll win this round in Crimea. They'll also win the round in eastern Ukraine. They may even prevent Ukraine from gravitating towards the rest of Europe...for now. But Russia is isolated. Its former SSRs hate it. The rest of Asia knows all about it. The former Warsaw Pact nations are quickly moving West. (I'm especially pleased that the Czechs, who were never really "eastern," are free from Russia.)

They're scared...and remain powerful and dangerous. But history is not on their side. The next big conflicts are going to be East-West. (Not necessarily military ones, either.) Russia better get on board or get left behind.
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Re: Ukraine conflict

Postby nosborne48 » Mon Mar 03, 2014 2:37 pm

Not much we can do anyway. The Black Sea has been a Russian lake for longer than the U.S. has existed. Just getting there is a difficult thing to do.
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Re: Ukraine conflict

Postby SteveFoerster » Mon Mar 03, 2014 3:04 pm

Rich Douglas wrote:They're scared...and remain powerful and dangerous. But history is not on their side. The next big conflicts are going to be East-West. (Not necessarily military ones, either.) Russia better get on board or get left behind.

Demographics are probably their worst enemy in the long run, because they're experiencing precipitous population decline. Given that one a few decades and they'll have a population lower than Germany's or the UK's.
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Re: Ukraine conflict

Postby Jimmy » Mon Mar 03, 2014 11:47 pm

What Rich Douglas said with one addition, they are also a mess spiritually.
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Re: Ukraine conflict

Postby johann » Mon Mar 03, 2014 11:59 pm

As Dr. Douglas rightly said: (1) Powerful, (2) dangerous...and (3) scared

That adds up to desperate, doesn't it? It doesn't get any worse than that, in individuals or regimes! History has underlined that innumerable times.

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Re: Ukraine conflict

Postby SteveFoerster » Tue Mar 04, 2014 5:07 pm

Here's an example why taking on Russia isn't like taking on anyone else, and why Americans would be better off for the U.S. to stay out of this.

Russia may drop U.S. dollar reserves: Kremlin aide
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Re: Ukraine conflict

Postby Rich Douglas » Tue Mar 04, 2014 7:17 pm

Of course, we find Russia's action--invading or going to war with a country unilaterally--reprehensible and we'd never do that. Except:

Afghanistan
Iraq (twice)
Cuba
Panama
Vietnam
Nicaragua
Grenada
Mexico
Spain
Japan (before WWII)

Oh, never mind. Move on. There's nothing to see here.
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Re: Ukraine conflict

Postby Roald » Tue Mar 04, 2014 7:25 pm

All of the above statements regarding Russia are true, but I'm not sure that they matter in the short term.

Russia simply doesn't care all that much about international opinion or norms. They have a long history of being the outsider, and have developed a very strong "us versus them" mentality. During the time of Peter the Great Russia had to be dragged kicking and screaming into the modern era after centuries of isolation and stagnation. During the Communist era, they once again withdrew into themselves and developed a closed, walled off society.

Unfortunately, Putin has managed to successfully combine Soviet style inward thinking with a sort of 18th century Russian imperialism.

Modern Russia has an almost paranoid, conspiratorial attitude towards the west. They believe that their rightful place is as an imperial power, and that western attempts to promote sovereignty in Ukraine and Georgia are designed to thwart Russia's future greatness. The idea of economic sanctions or international disdain is a small price to pay for realizing that greatness.
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Re: Ukraine conflict

Postby johann » Tue Mar 04, 2014 7:54 pm

Roald wrote:Unfortunately, Putin has managed to successfully combine Soviet style inward thinking with a sort of 18th century Russian imperialism.

Indeed he has. Look how it's worked for him! His Cossacks took a gold medal in Horse-whipping at the Sochi Games! Beating women (protesters) from a punk band! Not to mention another outrage - the jail sentence these same young women had endured earlier.

I never thought I'd live to see (on TV) women - or indeed anybody - being beaten by uniformed Cossacks! I thought they (Cossacks) had been mothballed along with the pogroms!

I grew up in the "Cold War." After this, I'm prepared for another -- I just hope it stays "cold." :sad:

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Re: Ukraine conflict

Postby Roald » Tue Mar 04, 2014 8:59 pm

Indeed, Johann.

I'm not prone to "doom and gloom" projections, and I try to maintain a reasonable perspective on things. That said, Russia's openly expressed imperial aspirations combined with a resurgence of religious fervor and anti-Americanism is very troubling.

I'm not sure that the average European or North American fully appreciates just how rabidly nationalistic Russia has become. Even among younger Russians, intense nationalism (with a healthy dose of paranoia) is the norm.

Rich Douglas wrote:Of course, we find Russia's action--invading or going to war with a country unilaterally--reprehensible and we'd never do that. Except:

Afghanistan
Iraq (twice)
Cuba
Panama
Vietnam
Nicaragua
Grenada
Mexico
Spain
Japan (before WWII)

Oh, never mind. Move on. There's nothing to see here.


Yes, there is plenty of hypocrisy to go around. Nonetheless, not all conflicts are equivalent even though they may share certain traits. They each possess their own set of causes and implications, and can have very different outcomes.

Many of these examples (Mexico, Spain, Japan) are too old or too fundamentally different to be instructive in the current situation. I mean honestly, do think Admiral Perry's fleet showing up in Tokyo Harbor is equivalent to Russia's actions over the last few days? Was Japan in danger of annexation or the installation of a puppet government?

Even the better examples (Vietnam, Iraq, Panama, Grenada) still have significant fundamental differences. They had to do with proxy wars or perceived threats to national security. The U.S. does not still control any of those countries, or even their oil! It's nearly impossible to imagine Ukraine coming out of a Russian invasion as an independent nation, however.

The specter of Russia's invasion of Chechnya is probably a better indicator of Ukraine's potential future than the U.S. invasion Grenada. Carpet bombing, civilian massacres and annexation to some creepy "Motherland" is a real possibility. Pretty different from Panama.
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Re: Ukraine conflict

Postby nosborne48 » Tue Mar 04, 2014 9:47 pm

It seems to me that one big difference between Vladimir the Terrible seizing the Crimea "to protect ethnic Russians there" and any of our own forays into imperialism since about 1898 is that Vlad seeks to annex, and apparently HAS annexed, territory and a population that are currently recognized as belonging to neighboring sovereign state. We haven't done that since taking the Philippines in the Spanish American War.

In terms of the political situation and rhetoric, Vlad's actions resemble nothing so much as the Nazi-German taking of the Sudetenland in 1938.
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Re: Ukraine conflict

Postby johann » Tue Mar 04, 2014 10:11 pm

Roald wrote:It's nearly impossible to imagine Ukraine coming out of a Russian invasion as an independent nation, however.

Putin has lots of weapons in his arsenal, besides bullets, bombs and physical invasion. He's hinted at least twice that if an "errant" country didn't mend its ways, Russia would shut off the gas it normally sells for heating. I remember he made similar remarks a few years ago towards a Baltic country - Estonia, I think.

And he would, I'm sure. IIRC he threatened Ukraine with this prior to Yanukovych's being deposed, to dissuade Ukraine-Europe economic ties, saying if they want to stay warm this winter, cozy up to Russia, economically speaking.

Right, Vlad - freeze the civilians - men, women and children. Talk about a "cold war." :sad:

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Re: Ukraine conflict

Postby Oregon » Wed Mar 05, 2014 9:43 pm

SteveFoerster wrote:Here's an example why taking on Russia isn't like taking on anyone else, and why Americans would be better off for the U.S. to stay out of this.

Russia may drop U.S. dollar reserves: Kremlin aide


"A senior Kremlin advisor has said Russia could respond to threatened U.S. economic sanctions by abandoning the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency and not repaying loans to U.S. banks"

Good. Anyone stupid enough to lend money to Russia deserves whatever they get. The western half or more of Ukraine was historically central European being part of the Lithuanian/Polish Kingdom and Austrian Empire. The biggest thing they ever received from Russia was having as many as 12 million citizens starved or butchered by the Soviet Russians.

Have the DegreeDiscussion Pinkos not yet figured out that Obama's rudderless foreign policy makes Jimmy Carter look like Attila the Hun.
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